A Renewed Push for European Deterrence
President Emmanuel Macron is expected to outline how France can contribute more directly to Europe’s nuclear security in a major speech on Monday. Delivering his address from the Île Longue peninsula — home to France’s fleet of nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines — Macron will revisit his earlier proposal to extend France’s nuclear deterrence dialogue to European partners.
Back in 2020, his suggestion that European allies could be more closely involved in France’s nuclear framework drew little response. Today, however, the geopolitical climate has shifted dramatically, and interest across European capitals appears to be growing. French officials insist any expanded role would complement, not compete with, the security umbrella provided by the United States.
A Changing Security Landscape
Europe’s strategic outlook has transformed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Concerns about long-term US commitments to European defence have resurfaced, especially amid signals that Washington may reduce its military presence on the continent as it pivots toward the Indo-Pacific.
Recent tensions — including Trump’s threat to use force against fellow NATO member Denmark over Greenland — have added to unease, even as European leaders publicly maintain confidence in the alliance.
Macron confirmed earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference that he has opened a “strategic dialogue” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other EU leaders about aligning nuclear doctrines. French officials argue that global developments — from Russia’s hypersonic missile programmes to China’s expanding arsenal and uncertainty surrounding Iran — are fuelling broader concern about nuclear proliferation.
No Arms Race, But Strategic Clarity
France maintains a policy of “strict sufficiency,” keeping its nuclear stockpile at roughly 300 warheads — far fewer than the more than 3,500 held by both the US and Russia. Officials stress that France is not seeking to match larger powers but to preserve its ability to deter aggression by guaranteeing “unacceptable damage” to any adversary.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius have both warned that replacing the US nuclear umbrella would be prohibitively costly and time-consuming. French sources echo that view, emphasizing that any expanded European role would reinforce NATO rather than rival it.
France has already deepened coordination with the United Kingdom under the Northwood Declaration, strengthening nuclear cooperation and joint exercises. As Europe reassesses its security foundations, Macron’s speech is expected to signal how France envisions its deterrent fitting into a more self-reliant European defence framework.
